One in 400 trillion vs one in 700 trillion? Probability of boy meeting girl: one in 20,000. Turtle sticking his head out of that life preserver is simply the area inside the life preserver divided by the total area of all oceans, or about 1 in 700 trillion. But lets make it longer. That's a pretty straightforward calculation. Let's say a life preserver's hole is about 80cm in diameter, which would make the area inside about 0.5 square meter. Say humans or humanoids have been around for about 3 million years, and that a generation is about 20 years. So to the second question: how accurate is this number? Harvard alumnus and creativity consultant Dr. Ali Binazir tried to calculate the mind-boggling odds of one being born into existence on earth, and came up with interesting results. And worry and fear? Wowser. These links dont impose any extra cost on you, and they help support the free content I provide here. Remember the sperm-meeting-egg argument for the creation of you, since each gamete is unique? It seems like wasting our precious lives on self pity or addiction is even less attractive, in this light. What would we come up with ourselves starting with first principles, making some reasonable assumptions and putting them all together? I would caution anyone from drawing a religiously-minded conclusion from these probabilities and heres why: While the probability of any one of us existing is very low, the probability that 350 million humans existing in the United States is very high. So let's say the probability of your parents meeting, ever, is 10,000 divided by 200 million, or one in 20,000. What impresses me is that at the moment our parents came together to form us, the Creator of the Universe stopped what He was doing to give, to each and every one of us, a soul unique to itself. Popes point: that we are not accidents, that God chose to create you and [me]. No need for caution about drawing any conclusion other that the one he quite explicitly drew. dr ali binazir odds of being born 2022-06-25T04:47:45+00:00 And the chances of that lasting long enough to result in offspring is one in 2. On one try. This is also true of their parents, and so on till the beginning of time. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. So, round-trip time works out to be about 14 yearsfor the fly to go to the moon and back. If you assume there are 3 billion women and 3 billion men alive today, that means 3 x 10^14 eggs and 3.6 x 10^22 sperm are currently on the planet, for a total of 1.1 x 10^37 possible pairings. Half of those people, or 200 million, will be of the opposite sex. This video makes a moving point, but it attributes our existence to luck. That means in every step of your lineage, the probability of the right sperm meeting the right egg such that the exact right ancestor would be created that would end up creating you is one in 400 quadrillion. They look like this , or this, and have to be avoided at all costs. Step 3. Want to Read. It would be your cousin Jethro, and you never really liked him anyway. So far, so good. The learned Frenchman put a number on it10 to the power of 50, written as 1050in order to impress upon the common herd that its members are not mathematicians. You have the rarest of chances in the universe to experience what life feels like. He attended the Ted Talk and wrote about it afterward, doing his own calculations on how likely your existence is. So, the combined probability is already only about 1 in 40 million. It is like finding out how many angels can stand on a pin-head! Again, it is similar to the probability of winning the Loto: while my chances of winning are very small, the probability of someone (or someones) winning are much higher. In 1943, the distinguished French mathematician mile Borel developed a law about probabilities that stated events with a sufficiently small probability never occur (Institute of Mathematical Statistics). Dr Ali Binazir is the author of the 'The Tao of Dating: The Smart Woman's Guide to Being Absolutely Irresistible', the highest-rated dating book on Amazon.co. Same to all of us. The fact is, you have a monumentally better chance of becoming anybody you want to be than of even being at all. One number that is tossed about a lot is that the odds against your being born are one in 400 trillion. Let's not get carried away here; we'll just deal with the human lineage. Consider some of the contingencies and requirements for your existence as set forth by Mr. Binazir. Heres how the National Center for Science Education puts it: Any event with a probability greater than 0, no matter how low, will be likely to happen if given enough opportunity, and sure to happen if opportunity is unlimited., Michele Caballero Siamitras Kassube on Pixabay. It was always likely that a living cell would jump out of that primordial soup because the conditions for that to happen must have existed somewhere; and, probably, in several somewheres. And the chances of that lasting long enough to result in offspring is one in two. They each roll the dice and they all come up the exact same number say, 550,343,279,001. Learn more here: Dr. Ali Binazirs Article on Probability of Being Born. If one square kilometer is a million square meters, then the probability of Mr Turtle sticking his head out of that life preserver is simply the area inside the life preserver divided by the total area of all oceans, or. Theologically, of course, we are no accident; we do not exist by happenstance. The likelihood that improbable events occur is controlled by the scale of the Universe. (This is also known as "consulting" -- especially if you show it all in a PowerPoint deck.). Each sperm and each egg is genetically unique because of the process of meiosis. Then he looked at the chances of them talking, of meeting again, of forming a long-term relationship, of having kids together, and of the right egg and the right sperm combining to make you. I met a couple of interesting people at a casual meet-up and the topic of the day was a good life. We're about to deal with eggs and sperm, which come in large numbers. Anything with a lower probability than that would not happen, said Borel the numbers man. A fertile woman has 100,000 viable eggs on average. Then, I hope and believe, that He has written my name on the palm of His hand, so whenever He looks at His hand, He thinks of me. (This is also known as "consulting" -- especially if you show it all in a PowerPoint deck.). The Arena Media Brands, LLC and respective content providers to this website may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. In its Final Data report of U.S. deaths for 2010, the CDC reported assault (homicide) dropped off of the list of the 15 leading causes of death, becoming 16th, following pneumonitis due to solids and liquids.. Well then, that would be one in 2150,000 , which is about 1 in 1045,000 a number so staggeringly large that my head hurts just writing it down. 7 distinct works Similar authors. A donut with no hole, is a Danish. We were all meant to be here and that we must find our purpose that brought us into creation! Probability of every one of your ancestors reproducing successfully: 1 in 1045,000. "That's a pretty big number," I thought to myself. msk zilina slovan bratislava; battle of the brothers winner The odds against 26 blacks in a row are about 66 million to one against; however, previous results have absolutely no effect on subsequent ones. Are they gross exaggerations? Previously, I had heard the Buddhist version of the probability of "this precious incarnation." Multiplying it all together for the sake of completeness (Step 1 x Step 2 x Step 3 x Step 4): Probability of your being born: one in 10. May 20, 2021; linda hunt commercials; nail salon in publix plaza near me . According to WolframAlpha, the total area of oceans in the world is 341 million km (131.6 million square miles). One night, perhaps, the same dream, grown hazy by morning. Now things start getting interesting. Pretty darn close, for such an unusual calculation. That chain involved every ancestor, all the way back to the original hominids, getting romantic at precisely the right moment to keep the sequence going that produced you. Suitcases checked and standing side by side. So the probability of your parents' chance meeting resulting in kids is about 1 in 2000. Well, the right sperm also had to meet the right egg to create your grandparents. In other words, as this infographic figures it, you are totally improbable. Lets say the fly takes a brief respite of one million years between trips. Namely, that every one of your ancestors lived to reproductive age -- going all the way back not just to the first Homo sapiens, first Homo erectus and Homo habilis, but all the way back to the first single-celled organism. Half of those people, or 200 million, will be of the opposite sex. First, let us figure out the probability of one turtle sticking its head out of the one life preserver we toss out somewhere in the ocean. "It is a part of probability that many improbable things will happen.. And the chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is also one in 10. What would we come up with ourselves starting with first principles, making some reasonable assumptions and putting them all together? Thus, the probability of your existing at all is about 1 in 102,685,000. Lets say we have a insect thatmirabile dictuwe can send to the moon. A little while ago I had the privilege of attending TEDx San Francisco, organized by the incomparable Christine Mason McCaull.. One of the talks was by Mel Robbins, a riotously funny self-help author and life coach with a syndicated radio show. How fast does a laden fly fly? Blog Home Uncategorized dr ali binazir odds of being born. Because there you are futzing about on the internet reading incredibly interesting articles like this one. If we really took it in we would fall on our knees with rapture and tears of gratitude. Further, they would not have existed if their parents had not existed and met, and so on. On my birthday, I had a strangely pertinent thought: what's the probability of being born? If you shouldnt even be here, then what is the point of worrying? This is the probability of you being born at the time you were born to your particular parents, with your particular genetic make-up. I'm Heidi, I'm a writer, a mama and a sober recovery teacher/mentor. Heres a thought experiment to help illustrate the unbelievably huge size of these numbers. So the probability of that one sperm with half your name on it hitting that one egg with the other half of your name on it is one in 400 quadrillion. : A definitive guide for smart women, How to Get Guys: The 6.5 Dating Phases of Men. Its not cheesy to be grateful to be alive, if you look at the facts, it should be normal. One of my brothers made his own calculation regarding one of Binazirs assumptions and came up with a figure that would make the probability of existence even smaller: My numbers are more simplistic, but assuming 100,000 eggs/woman & 12 trillion sperm/man creates 1.2 x 10^18 combinations for every man/woman pairing (i.e., significantly more combinations than the 400 trillion or 4 x 10^14 mentioned in the article). Now go forth and feel and act like the miracle that you are. Having said that, Monsignor Popes reflection should spur us to consider that while the Mind of God could think of a nearly infinite number of souls to create, he chose to create you and I. To say that someone or something is contingent is to say that the existence of same is not inevitable but rather can only come about based on a number of previous things being true in a chain of being or causality. Think about yourself.You are here becauseYour dad met your mom.Then your dad and mom conceived you.So a particular egg in your momJoined a particular sperm from your dadWhich could only happen because not one of your direct ancestors, going all the way back to the beginning of life itself, died before passing on his or her genesSo what are the chances of you happening?Of you being here? Learn more here: Dr. Ali Binazir's Article on Probability of Being Born Even with the lowest statistic of 1 in 400 trillion, you would have a better chance of winning over $100 million. 3.97 avg rating 549 ratings published 2010 5 editions. Or are we some mysterious combination of impossible and inevitable? (+ My podcast interview on raising your spirits), Staying Sane in Trying Times Seminars, Apr 22-25, WED FEB 19: The 5 Magic Questions What 5000 Womens Letters Reveal About Love & Dating, How often should you call him? Well then, that would be one in 2 , which is about one in 10 -- a number so staggeringly large that my head hurts just writing it down. You are not here by luck; you are here by the grace and will of God. So he gave us an analogy that helps: Its the probability of 2.5 million people getting togetherabout the population of San Diegoeach to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Were all winners in life without doing anything! In 1913, at the roulette wheel at the Casino de Monte-Carlo, the ball dropped into a black slot 26 times in succession. Previously, I had heard the Buddhist version of the probability of "this precious incarnation." Or is it possible that they are underestimates of the true number? For the sake of completeness: (102,640,000)(1045,000)(2000)(20,000) = 4x 102,685,007 102,685,000, Probability of your existing at all: 1 in 102,685,000. But, doesnt that seem a bit low? A fertile woman has about 100,000 viable eggs while a man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. Marcus Aurelius offers wisdom on how to use this fact. Let's confine the pool of possible people they could meet to 1/10th of the world's population 20 years go (1/10th of 4 billion = 400 million) so it considers not just the population of the US but that of the places they could have visited. or one in 6.821014, or about 1 in 700 trillion. An unimaginably long time. I would certainly add in (sadly) that there is the possibility of abortion or miscarriage, but even a simple analysis yields an astonishingly small probability. We were not born by accident given the odds calculated by scientists showing the odds of you being born are at least 1 in 400 trillion IF NOT 1 in 400 quadrillion and most likely 1 in 10.2,640,000. You can start the series by clicking HERE. It's the probability of 2.5 million people getting together -- about the population of San Diego -- each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Pretty darn close, for such an unusual calculation. Has anybody ever said to you Youre one in a million? Heres Dr. Ali Binazir on the probability of a human being born: Its the probability of 2.5 million people getting together about the population of San Diego each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Those who are brave (foolish?) Namely, that every one of your ancestors lived to reproductive age, going back about 150,000 generations to the origin of man. A man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. If the first shot fall into the black hole, it remains only the red, and not green or blue. I believe The Source who I call God loves us infinitely, unimaginably. A fertile woman has 100,000 viable eggs on average. You are living a life you should mathematically not have ever had. Imagine there was one life preserver thrown somewhere in some ocean, with exactly one turtle in all of these oceans, swimming underwater somewhere. The chances of them talking to one another is 1 in 10. Worldwide, there are 2,043 billionaires among 7.4 billion people. Please pass this post along. The Nobel Prize winning poet Wislawa Szymborska once wrote about two lovers who liked to think they'd met entirely by chance, but no, she says, there was nothing chancy about it. I am only publishing a small number of his musings, but you can read his full article here: What Are the Chances of You Being Born?. Multply the volume of New Jerusalem by 77. Yes, youre here all right, and math can barely account for your existence, so tiny are the odds; but God has overseen every detail and knew you long before you were born. If they met one new person of the opposite sex every day from age 15 to 40, that would be about 10,000 people. on May 07, 2020: Rupert, in spite of too many odds in a probability, bottom line is that it is just 2 numbers of the roulette, black and red. And the chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is also one in 10. The number of atoms in the known universe is estimated at 1080. A man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. Not only are you and I contingent, we are highly improbable! (This is also known as consulting especially if you show it all in a PowerPoint deck.). The conclusion: The odds that you exist at all are basically zero., He illustrates it this way: It is the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Or, the total number of seconds that have elapsed since the Big Bang is 10x 16 th power. Its like winning a free ticket to the the best party in the world. On top of that, to be born in a first-world country, the odds are even smaller. By entering your email and clicking Sign Up, you're agreeing to let us send you customized marketing messages about us and our advertising partners. Well, the right sperm also had to meet the right egg to create your grandparents, too. Even if they couldn't read them yet. Now things start getting interesting. Its so unlikely, its almost impossible that youre here and taking a breath right now. To say that we are contingent beings is a vast understatement. The chances of them talking to one another is 1 in 10. This content is accurate and true to the best of the authors knowledge and is not meant to substitute for formal and individualized advice from a qualified professional. How do you deal with a confirmed bachelor?, 9 Reasons Why Men Lose Interest and What You Can Do About It. But even if you dont believe in that, the science is enough. To be more specific, its probably 1 in 102,640,000. The following analysis, paraphrased at some points, is taken directly from Mr. Binazirs article: The probability of father meeting mother is 1 in 20,000. And the chances of that turning into another meeting is about one in 10 also. Borels Law is about the probability of events occurring. Sean said that we have already won the cosmic lottery simply by being born because the odds of that happening alone is one in a gazillion times. Say that over the course of all human existence, the likelihood of any one human offspring to survive childhood and live to reproductive age and have at least one kid is 50:50 -- one in two. Seriously, look around, look up to the sky, take this all in. Then the probability of Mr. You are the result of the fusion of one particular egg with one particular sperm. You can consider using our babies name resource to choose baby at 12 weeks old that suits your needs! Osterholm is one of the world's foremost public health professionals, having served for 40 years on the frontlines of such diseases as Ebola, SARS, MERS, Zika and everything else. First, your parents have to meet, then stay together long enough to reproduce, then conceive you at the exact right time so that the right egg drops (your mother has 100,000 in her lifetime), then the right sperm must make it in (your father produces 4 trillion during the years you could be born). They each roll the dice -- and they all come up the exact same number -- say, 550,343,279,001. That is, instead of making one big hand-waving gesture and pronouncing, The answer is five hundred bazillion squintillion, we make a series of sequentially-reasoned, smaller hand-waving gestures so as to make it all seem scientific. Gather your loved ones around and give props to your incredibly resilient and badass survivor ancestors, while you explode your gender revel confetti poppers. It turns out that when taking into account the astonishing number of possibilities of parents meeting, grandparents meeting before them, and so on going back generations, and then adding the vast number of sperm and ova in possible combinations over decades of the marital act in all those generations, the odds of me existing just as I do are about 1 in 10. So, thats 28,800 events a day, adding up to a million in 35 days. First, let's talk about the probability of your parents meeting. Mirabile visu (Wondrous to behold)! Take a second and think about that, and put a smile on your face, you fucking miracle you. Love, H, Writer, Mama, Spiritual Warrior @RecovHer, Sharing is Caring! Now things start getting interesting. That should always be a great sense of wonder and a real source of gratitude. As you aptly point out, many persons losts lots of money at the roulette because they quests mathematically accurate. They'd be amazed to hear that Chance has been toying with them now for years. alex mendez political party; land for sale bundaberg repossessed houses; how does macbeth and banquo's relationship change; skyking richard russell That's 150,000 generations. Astronomers estimate that there are at least 100 billion galaxies in the observable Universe. That means in every step of your lineage, the probability of the right sperm meeting the right egg such that the exact right ancestor would be created that would end up creating you is one in 400 quadrillion. *wink wink* Well, hello thereBom chicka wow wowits: The chance of every one of your ancestors outrunning dinosaurs, disease, war and pestilence to live to reproductive age and reproduce successfully is one in 10. He concluded that the chances of a turtle sticking its head out in the middle of the life preserver was about one in 700 trillion. You get the volume of planet Earth. You are a representative of an unbroken lineage of life going back 4 billion years. The question is, how long will it take for the fly to bring the entire moon back to the earth? So to the second question: how accurate is this number? Contributors control their own work and posted freely to our site. Now lets get down to some of the biological details: each sperm and each egg is genetically unique because of the process of meiosis; you are the result of the fusion of one particular egg with one particular sperm. Turtle sticking his head out of that life preserver is simply the area inside the life preserver divided by the total area of all oceans, or about 1 in 700 trillion. That number is not just larger than all of the particles in the universe -- it's larger than all the particles in the universe if each particle were itself a universe. To further awaken to the miracle that is you, get The Tao of Dating: The Smart Woman's Guide to Being Absolutely Irresistible, now available in book, ebook, Kindle, audiobook, and Sinai indestructible stone tablet. It is the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Half of those people, or 200 million, will be of the opposite sex. 530 Lovett Blvd, Houston, TX 77006 +1 (713) 942-9600; pricing strategy of samsung mobile phones. A man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. So I got curious: Are either of these estimates correct? That means in every step of your lineage, the probability of the right sperm meeting the right egg such that the exact right ancestor would be created that would end up creating you is one in 400 quadrillion. Dr Ali Binazir, Contributor Author, Happiness Engineer & Personal Growth consultant creating tools for greater wellness & flourishing Jun 16, 2011, 03:58 PM EDT | Updated Aug 16, 2011 This post was published on the now-closed HuffPost Contributor platform. -- from "Love at First Sight", Wislawa Szymborska, The End and The Beginning, 1993. I was alerted to a fascinating article by Ali Binazir, who sets forth mathematically the probably that each of us exists. And the chances of that turning into another meeting is about one in 10 also. So what's the probability of your being born? By that definition, I've just proven that you are a miracle. Well surely reply you within 48 hours. But, despite your being an extremely wonderful person, such a statement is wildly inaccurate. But now, as long as I'm musing about insane probabilities, I thought I'd delve a little into the odds of us even being born and what that took! They each roll the dice and they all come up with the exact same numberfor example, 550,343,279,001., A miracle is an event so unlikely as to be almost impossible. Get ready to have your socks blown off, ya beautiful miracle, you. Probability of same boy knocking up same girl: one in 2000. However, your existence presupposes another supremely unlikely chain of events. Even with the lowest statistic of 1 in 400 trillion, you would have a better chance of winning over $100 million dollar lottery 9 times over your life again than you would have being born. I gotta say, the two numbers are pretty darn close, for such a far-fetched notion from two completely different sources: old-time Buddhist scholars and present-day scientists., *Illustration of human profile and numbers via Shutterstock, You're one in 400 trillion, or pretty much a miracle. It turns out that when taking into account the astonishing number of possibilities of parents meeting, grandparents meeting before them, and so on going back generations, and then adding the vast number of sperm and ova in possible combinations over decades of the marital act in all those generations, the odds of me existing just as I do are about 1 in 102,685,000. Probability of right sperm meeting right egg: 1 in 400 quadrillion. Mathematician Professor John Littlewood of Cambridge University defined a miracle as an event happening with a frequency of one in a million. The probability that you came about and exist today is the same as that turtle sticking its head out of the water into the middle of that life preserver. Moreover, the second shot would not necessary run into the red. Step 2. The chances that they would then get knocked up? I was toying with this other idea, about an owl who falls in love with a cat and brings it mice every day. Otherwise they'd be different people, and so would their children, who would then have had children who were similar to you but not quite you. Imagine there was one life preserver thrown somewhere in some ocean and there is exactly one turtle in all of these oceans, swimming underwater somewhere. Remember the sperm-meeting-egg argument for the creation of you, since each gamete is unique? Step 2. They each roll the dice -- and they all come up the exact same number -- say, 550,343,279,001. But let's think about this some more. Then what would be the chance of your particular lineage to have remained unbroken for 150,000 generations? In it, she mentioned that scientists calculate the probability of your existing as you, today, at about one in 400 trillion (410 14). So the probability of that one sperm with half your name on it hitting that one egg with the other half of your name on it is. Thats just the observable Universe; we havent the faintest idea what is beyond what we can detect with our instruments. Also follow me on Instagram @RecovHer and visit my RecovHer YouTube Channel for more sober tools and tips. They agree to within a factor of two! Lets say a third of those (4 trillion or 4 x 10, So, the chance of your particular chain of ancestors having remained unbroken for all that time would be 1 in 2, To account for all 150,000 generations, we raise 400 quadrillion to the 150,000, Thus, the probability of your existing at all is about 1 in 10, This video makes a moving point, but it attributes our existence to luck. This is similar to the probability of any one star turning super-nova. When expanded it provides a list of search options that will switch the search inputs to match the current selection. Dr. Binazir is an author and personal change specialist who studied at Harvard, received a medical degree from the University of California, and studied philosophy at Cambridge University. Dr. Binazir puts it this way: "It is the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. If you need to flag this entry as abusive. Think of how strong our ancestors had to be to allow us to eat a sandwich or sing Happy Birthday. I have one baby so far, but Im still fertile, according to science. First, let us figure out the probability of one turtle sticking its head out of the one life preserver we toss out somewhere in the ocean. This is also true of your grandparents parents, and their parents, and so on back to the beginning of human time. So, who better to explain probability theory than someone who is a complete duffer at mathematics? The chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is about 1 in 10. And whats even more profound is that 10^2,685,00 is not even remotely comparable with eternity. A lovely day to you. His reasoning being that each person experiences an event of some sort every second. Because the fact that your baby to be is a miracle is not just a religious ideaits science. And the chances of that lasting long enough to result in offspring is one in 2. You are the result of the fusion of one particular egg with one particular sperm. Its almost too big to process, just know that the odds that you exist at all are basically zero. Multiplying it all together for the sake of completeness (Step 1 x Step 2 x Step 3 x Step 4): Probability of your being born: one in 10. The chances of that lasting long enough to result in offspring is 1 in 2. decision by design review farnam street; dr ali binazir odds of being born; post mortem fingerprint equipment. xx, Lets be social! However, as the astute who do exist will have observed, extremely improbable events do actually occur. Click the image to enlarge it and check their numbers: Of course, there are poets who argue exactly the opposite: that each of us is fated to exist, that there is a plan, and that all of us are expected.

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