I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. It was ostensibly completed on November 10 in the 66 Florida counties that used vote-counting machines and reduced Bush's lead to 327 votes. in answer to "Would the county accept a write-in overvote if the write-in text area contained a non-qualified candidate?". While Democrats did make their way down to Florida, there was nothing like the certainty or the passion that ignited Republicans. The next day, Gore sued under Florida's statutory construct of the "contest phase". Regarding the second issue, the court ruled that the statutory scheme must be interpreted in light of the Florida state constitution's declaration that "all political power is inherent in the people," with any ambiguities therefore construed "liberally." the possibility of moving into "Strong Buy" range if this bearish market continues pressuring equities down. Conservative writer Andrew Sullivan in a contemporaneous article:[61]. On November 13 the Gore campaign and Volusia and Palm Beach Counties sued to have the deadlines extended.[13]. The organization analyzed 171,908 ballots (60,647 undervotes and 111,261 overvotes), 3102 less than the later NORC study. Finance activities take place in financial systems at various scopes, thus the field can be roughly Scenario 1. A larger consortium of news organizations, including USA Today, The Miami Herald, Knight Ridder, The Tampa Tribune, and five other newspapers next conducted a full recount of all machine-rejected ballots, including both undervotes and overvotes. Sensitivity Analysis, among other models, is put much more to use as a decision support model than merely a tool to reach one optimal solution. If the p-value becomes 0.03 under this scenario, then the results are robust. Controversies included: Many voters in Palm Beach County who intended to vote for Gore actually marked their ballots for Pat Buchanan or spoiled their ballots because they found the ballot's layout to be confusing. According to their results, Bush won under stricter standards and Gore won under looser standards. Sensitivity Analysis, among other models, is put much more to use as a decision support model than merely a tool to reach one optimal solution. The 2000 United States presidential election recount in Florida was a period of vote recounting in Florida that occurred during the weeks after Election Day in the 2000 United States presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore.The Florida vote was ultimately settled in Bush's favor by a margin of 537 votes when the U.S. Supreme Court, in Bush v. The first step in the analysis is to determine the historical annual growth rate (Figure 4). According to standards being applied by each county at the time. We attempted to establish diagnostic models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) JPM is often showcased as a good dividend stock by many dividend focused investors. Furthermore, the study did not consider overvotes, ballots that registered more than one vote when counted by machine. The summary above shows the results of a CAGR calculation since 1973, and the past 20, 10, and 5 years. George W. Bush, et al., Petitioners v. Albert Gore, Jr., et al. The decision was extremely controversial due to its partisan split and the majority's unusual instruction that its judgment in Bush v. Gore should not set precedent but should be "limited to the present circumstances". Fortunately for dividend investors, this creates opportunity for contrarians to establish or reinforce long-term focused positions securing their investment returns into the future. The instructions on the sample ballots said "Vote every page". There were two main issues:[55][56][57][58]. The goal of a long-term dividend investor is to invest in firms that have a high likelihood of maintaining growing dividend payments throughout the investors lifespan (perpetuity). Sensitivity Analysis vs. Quantitative methods to address uncertainty include non-probabilistic approaches such as sensitivity analysis and probabilistic methods such as Monte Carlo analysis. The analysis from the multimethod ensemble indicates that a global increase in temperature of 1 C will reduce global rice yield by an average of 3.2 3.7%, much less than for maize and wheat (Fig. Also note that the standard deviation is 55.3% with a 95% confidence interval between -2.1% and 29.7%. 2009 through 2011 were challenging times for the financial sector as represented in the JPM dividend during that time period. Sauls also rejected Gore's contest of the election result on December 4, and Gore appealed that decision too. Stepwise regression and Best subsets regression: These automated As the manual recounts continued, the battle to certify the results intensified. Sensitivity analysis is a management tool that helps in determining how different values of an independent variable can affect a particular dependent variable. In such case, only the write-in vote is void." Finance is the study and discipline of money, currency and capital assets.It is related to, but not synonymous with economics, the study of production, distribution, and consumption of money, assets, goods and services (the discipline of financial economics bridges the two). The manual recounts were time-consuming, and it soon became clear that some counties would not complete their recounts before the deadline. Canvassing boards of Alachua, Bay, Bradford, Charlotte, Columbia, Escambia, Franklin, Gulf, Hendry, Hernando, Holmes, Lake, Manatee, Okaloosa, Okeechobee, St. Johns and Washington Counties, Election day decisions by 17 Optiscan counties not to "manually review overvotes that couldn't be properly read by machine", Canvassing boards of Alachua, Bay, Charlotte, Citrus, Columbia, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Holmes, Jackson, Lake, Leon, Manatee, Monroe, Okaloosa, Okeechobee, St. Johns, Suwanee and Washington Counties, Election day decisions by 19 Optiscan counties not to "manually review undervotes that couldn't be read by counting machines", Canvassing boards of Collier, DeSoto, Dixie, Duval, Glades, Hardee, Highlands, Hillsborough, Indian River, Jefferson, Lee, Madison, Marion, Miami-Dade, Nassau, Osceola, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Sumter and Wakulla Counties, Election day decisions by 21 punch-card counties not to "attempt to determine voter intent on undervotes that couldn't be read by counting machines", The above 21 boards plus Palm Beach County Canvassing Board, Election day decisions by 22 punch-card counties not to "attempt to determine voter intent on overvotes that couldn't be properly read by machine", Decision not to review dimpled ballots with clear indications of intent, Decision to change county's certified vote from the mechanical recount total back to the election night vote total, Decision not to include Palm Beach County's vote recount results (all but 53 precincts) submitted before certification deadline, Decision not to include Miami-Dade County's vote recount results (139 precincts) accomplished before certification deadline. 11. On November 11, it joined a group of Florida voters in suing in federal district court for a preemptive injunction to stop all manual recounting of votes in Florida. A key feature of scenarios is that they should challenge conventional wisdom about the future. Fitted line plots: If you have one independent variable and the dependent variable, use a fitted line plot to display the data along with the fitted regression line and essential regression output.These graphs make understanding the model more intuitive. Meanwhile, on December 6 the Republican-controlled Florida legislature convened a special session to appoint a slate of electors pledged to Bush, as the U.S. Constitution bestows upon state legislatures the duty to determine how its state's electors are appointed. The 2000 United States presidential election recount in Florida was a period of vote recounting in Florida that occurred during the weeks after Election Day in the 2000 United States presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore.The Florida vote was ultimately settled in Bush's favor by a margin of 537 votes when the U.S. Supreme Court, in Bush v. Seven of the nine justices saw constitutional problems with the Equal Protection Clause of the United States Constitution in the Florida Supreme Court's plan for recounting ballots, citing differing vote-counting standards from county to county and the lack of a single judicial officer to oversee the recount. The Desired Return shows a scale of different investor return expectations ranging from a 5% to 17% return. The simulation also showed a 52.28% probability for a positive integer meaning that it is a slightly positive probability that JPM increases their dividend based off this model. The 1st United States Congress provided the detailed organization of a federal judiciary through the Judiciary Act of 1789.The Supreme Court, the country's highest judicial tribunal, was to sit in the nation's Capital and would initially be composed of a chief justice and five associate justices. What this means for investors is that using the inputs from the historical data and 5,000 randomized iterations, JPM has an expected growth rate median of 3.16% and 52.28% of the time will be a positive integer. 2A). USA Today, The Miami Herald, and Knight Ridder commissioned accounting firm BDO Seidman to count undervotes. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. As of this writing, JPM is trading around the $106 price range and prices within 2% are highlighted in green. 13. The flaw with this specific scenario is that the large variance due to the standard deviation creates a much less consistent expectancy for JPM going forward. They argue that American democracy is a far stricter, Lockean, Anglo-American system based on the letter of the law and a successful vote cast by a rational, responsible voter. More than 20% of ballots in black precincts of Duval County were rejected because of votes for president on each page. On November 14, the original deadline for reporting results, with the Volusia County recount complete, Bush held a 300-vote lead. 11. Scenarios Example 18:59. It clearly shows that there have been extreme variations when the dividend was cut and reestablished. ", "Data Files NORC Files, Media Group Files", "Now Democrats Are Upset With The Way Lake Counted, Counters Threw Out 3,114 Ballots Because Voters Also Wrote In The Name Of Their Candidate", "No. BDO Seidman's results, reported in USA Today, show that under the strictest standard, where only a cleanly punched ballot with a fully removed chad was counted, Gore's margin was three votes. This figure shows all of the growth rates through JPM's dividend history from 1973 until 2022. The lack of certainty in the premises and inputs brings about investment risk. "Statutes & Constitution :View Statutes: Online Sunshine", "Bush leads Gore by 327 votes in Florida recount, Associated Press reports", "A State Legislature Cannot Appoint Its Preferred Slate of Electors to Override the Will of the People After the Election", "Gore concedes presidential race after the fight of his life", "The Butterfly Ballot: Anatomy of a Disaster", "Florida's flawed "voter-cleansing" program", "Do Voting Rights Notification Laws Increase Ex-Felon Turnout? The next day, the Florida Supreme Court allowed manual recounts in Palm Beach and Broward Counties to continue but left it to a state judge to decide whether Harris must include those votes in the final tally. 5.1 Sensitivity. Scenario analysis is sometimes confused with sensitivity analysis. Dividend investors can specifically focus on decreasing their risk by increasing their return expectation and estimating future dividend growth conservatively. A CAGR formula considers the annual growth with a beginning and ending period and is a more accurate way of measuring returns. About 10 p.m. EST on December 12, the United States Supreme Court handed down its ruling. JPM is known as a dividend contender meaning it has increased its dividend every year for the past 10 years. We can utilize a Sensitivity Analysis combined with a Gordon Growth Model to determine purchase prices (Figure 11). If the p-value becomes 0.03 under this scenario, then the results are robust. [16][17], During the recount, controversy ensued with the discovery of various irregularities that had occurred in the voting process in several counties. The Scenario 2 data shows a much closer mean and median growth rate which are 7.12% and 5.56% respectively. The flaw with this specific scenario is that it omits potentially devastating "Black Swan" events that fall outside of the 95% confidence interval and the JPM dividend reaction to these events. The Athens, Ga., new wave pioneers are wrapping up their last-ever tour. We invest by attempting to understand a range of potential outcomes through analysis. Finance is the study and discipline of money, currency and capital assets.It is related to, but not synonymous with economics, the study of production, distribution, and consumption of money, assets, goods and services (the discipline of financial economics bridges the two). Scenario 1. Our analysis indicates that the real parts of 0 and 1 diverge from each other in an 1/3 fashion. Our goal at Six-Five Research is to incorporate both quantitative and qualitative analysis into better investment decisions. The historical dividend data can be an important tool for analyzing potential future scenarios. 10. Sensitivity analysis is a management tool that helps in determining how different values of an independent variable can affect a particular dependent variable. The lack of certainty in the premises and inputs brings about investment risk. Quantitative methods to address uncertainty include non-probabilistic approaches such as sensitivity analysis and probabilistic methods such as Monte Carlo analysis. However, this form of analysis becomes ambiguous when the terms pessimistic and optimistic become subjective to the user and the levels considered are set as per the user. Scenario analysis is a tool to enhance critical strategic thinking. As adjusted, 176,343 ballots were expected, compared to 175,010 ballots actually provided to the NORC for review. [22] At the same time that the Bush campaign was contesting hand recounts in Democratic counties, it accepted hand recounts in Republican counties that gained them 185 votes, including where Republican Party workers had been permitted to correct errors on thousands of applications for absentee ballots for Republicans. JPM is a dividend contender and a large firm that is embedded into American businesses making it an ideal candidate. Based on the review of these ballots, their results indicated that Bush would have won if certain recounting methods had been used (including the one favored by Gore at the time of the Supreme Court decision), but that Gore might have won under other standards and scenarios. It can be useful in a wide range of subjects apart from finance, such as engineering, geography, biology, etc. The intent of this article is to value JPM for long-term dividend focused investors. A computational method to identify cell types within a complex tissue, based on analysis of gene expression profiles, is described in this paper. JPM showcases a strong dividend grade according to Seeking Alpha (Figure 2) with a phenomenal 5 year growth rate and a very healthy payout ratio. The results of this tally were to be added to the November 26 tally. Four counties distributed sample ballots to voters that differed from the actual ballot used on election day, including Duval County, which used a caterpillar ballot, so called because the list of presidential candidates stretched over two pages. Of these 4842 excluded ballots, 4513 had been set aside by the canvassing board for later inspection by a court (which never happened). Not from where I'm sitting and what I'm looking at." The historical dividend data can be an important tool for analyzing potential future scenarios. We focus on value, cash flow, competitive environments, business strategy, macro-economics, descriptive statistics, statistical methods, and theorizing potential risk scenarios. The results were 49% for Gore and 40% for Bush, with 11% uncertain or not wishing to respond.[82]. [78] The post-controversy recounts revealed that, "if a manual recount had been limited to undervotes, it would have produced an inaccurate picture of the electorate's position."[4]. Our analysis indicates that the real parts of 0 and 1 diverge from each other in an 1/3 fashion. Youre testing one input/variable and measuring how it impacts your output. Scenario Analysis. Our analysis indicates that the real parts of 0 and 1 diverge from each other in an 1/3 fashion. Also note that the standard deviation is 6.87% with a 95% confidence interval between 4.69% and 9.56%. Further, counties and precincts with large black populations disproportionately had technologies where ballots would predictably go uncounted. The longstanding case law in Florida [ ] has held that the intent of the voters as shown by their ballots should be given effect. Preventing the canvassing boards from continuing to conduct recounts beyond the seven-day timeframe (specified in the law, but with ambiguity as to how firm it was intended to be), would "summarily disenfranchise innocent electors [voters]" and could not be allowed unless the recounts continued for so long as to "compromise the integrity of the electoral process." Center for the Study of Intelligence (CSI) The World Factbook. The Florida Statutes contemplate that where electronic or electromechanical voting systems are used, no vote is to be declared invalid or void if there is a clear indication of the intent of the voter as determined by the county canvassing board. A Gordon Growth Model can determine the intrinsic value of constantly growing payments. Custom Scenario Buildout Part 1 9:54. Upon such an overvote, the entire vote for that office shall be void and shall not be counted. Some media reports focused on undervotes (chad blocked hole, wrong ink or pencil used, partial oval mark not detected, humidity affected scanner, ballot feeder misalignment), while others also included overvotes (hole punched or oval filled plus a write-in name, other multi-marked ballots). One thing to note, scenario analysis is not the same as sensitivity analysis! Sensitivity analysis is the process of analyzing individual variables/decisions to see how they impact an aspect of your businessone at a time. This immediately reduced the Bush margin from 537 to 154 (537215168 is 154). I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Figure 10. Bush's name appeared at the top of the ballot, sparing most Bush voters from error. Of those overvotes, 68,476 chose Gore and a minor candidate; 23,591 chose Bush and a minor candidate. The analysis from the multimethod ensemble indicates that a global increase in temperature of 1 C will reduce global rice yield by an average of 3.2 3.7%, much less than for maize and wheat (Fig. Florida Supreme Court order as being implemented: accepts completed recounts in eight counties and certified counts from four counties that refused to recount; Incomplete result when the Supreme Court stayed the recount (December 9, 2000), Recounts included from Volusia and Broward only, Wrong ink color/carbon content (oval/arrow filled). Various flaws and improprieties in Florida's electoral processes were immediately apparent, while others were reported after later investigation. Unlike the much-discussed Palm Beach County butterfly ballot, the Duval County ballot spread choices for president over two non-facing pages. Example 1: If an investor utilizes the Monte Carlo simulation from Scenario 2 expecting a median growth rate of 5.35% (rounded down to 5%, yellow row) while expecting a 9% return on dividend stocks, then that investor would have a purchase price of $105 which places JPM currently around an appropriate buying range. The organization analyzed 61,190 undervotes and 113,820 overvotes. As the state has moved toward electronic voting, nothing in this evolution has diminished the standards first articulated in such [judicial] decisions that the intent of the voter is of paramount concern and should be given effect if the voter has complied with the statutory requirement and that intent may be determined. On the other hand, he said, Democrats talked like referees with a fear of pushing too hard, not wanting to be seen as sore losers. Undervotes (ballots that did not register any vote when counted by machine) were the subject of much media coverage, most of the lawsuits and the Florida Supreme Court ruling. The first step in the analysis is to determine the historical annual growth rate (Figure 4). What is CVP Analysis? Orange County total of 512 properly filled ballots not read by machine on November 8, 2000. Is this happening to you frequently? There are notable observations that can be made from this data and the causes of the variance in JPM would have to be researched further. The Gore campaign sued to force Miami-Dade County to continue its recount, but the Florida Supreme Court refused to consider the request. However, an overvote shall not occur when the elector casts a vote on the ballot card but then enters a sham or unqualified name in the write-in space for that same office. Half of the overvotes in Duval County had one presidential candidate marked on each page, making their vote illegal under Florida law. "[50], On The Today Show of November 9, 2000, Buchanan said, "When I took one look at that ballot on Election Night it's very easy for me to see how someone could have voted for me in the belief they voted for Al Gore. The Gore campaign requested that disputed ballots in Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Volusia Counties be counted by hand. In this constitutional system, the "will of the people" is an irrelevant abstraction. Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis (CVP analysis), also commonly referred to as Break-Even Analysis, is a way for companies to determine how changes in costs (both variable and fixed) and sales volume affect a companys profit.With this information, companies can better understand overall performance by looking at how many units must be The dividend data in this analysis was pulled from the JPM dividend history on the firms website (Figure 3). However, this form of analysis becomes ambiguous when the terms pessimistic and optimistic become subjective to the user and the levels considered are set as per the user. Scenario Analysis vs. Youre testing one input/variable and measuring how it impacts your output. Aside from this case, also in dispute were the criteria that each county's canvassing board would use in examining the overvotes and/or undervotes. Most inclusive standard: any dimpled chads, any affirmative mark on optical scan ballots; includes optical scan overvotes. Another candidate fourth condition on knowledge is sensitivity. Rowman & Littlefield. Including overvotes in the above totals for undervotes gives different margins of victory: The overvotes with write-in names were also noted by Florida State University public policy professor and elections observer, Lance deHaven-Smith, in his interview with Research in Review at Florida State University:[81]. There is currently large uncertainty and volatility in financial markets. This summary shows that there is a large difference between the CAGR for JPM dividends since 1973 and over the past 20 years in comparison to the 5 and 10 year CAGR. She said that she used both sides of the ballot in order to make the candidate names larger so the county's elderly residents could more easily see the names.[54]. A Sensitivity Analysis allows for investors to select their "Buy" price from their own assumptions. 13. [37] After the election, recounts conducted by various United States news media organizations continued to focus on undervotes. Scenario Analysis. A computational method to identify cell types within a complex tissue, based on analysis of gene expression profiles, is described in this paper. The first step in the analysis is to determine the historical annual growth rate (Figure 4). rejected by the Florida Supreme Court in its ruling of December 8, 2000, the lightly populated counties of Gadsden, Hamilton, Lafayette and Union.

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