4th October 2022| BBC Scotland Gender Recognition Act Poll, conducted by Savanta ComRes, reported by the BBC 17 Feb 2022Full Results I DataMain findings: 57% would support making the process to acquire a gender recognition certificate easier but that support dropped when asked about specific proposals. We will not share your email address with any third parties. A high percentage of respondents agreeing that people should be free to express their transgender identity does not however translate into support for reforming the Gender Recognition Act based on self-declaration. Separate from the question of how Scots might vote in a hypothetical second referendum is the question of whether there should be a second referendum. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. However as the Scottish parliament became fully operational in Edinburgh, support for independence initially waned, trending around 30% in the first decade of the twentieth century. Changes are shown as (vs that poll / vs last election). * Prediction from Electoral Calculus using the figures from the latest YouGov opinion poll. Humza Yousaf blasted as he promises to spend taxpayer cash on more independence prospectuses, The Scottish Government health secretary, and front-runner to replace Nicola Sturgeon as First Minister, used his speech in Arbroath to claim that he was going to 'kickstart the independence campaign', Ange Postecoglou hails Reo Hatate Celtic impact as he makes 'another couple of levels' claim. In early March 2023, the Labour Party continue to consolidate their substantial lead over the Conservatives, one which is now trending at 21%.. Polling averages extrapolated in the 3 weeks to 2 March place Labour on 47.3%, the Conservatives on 26.8%, and the Liberal Democrats on 9.3%. Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament. Week-in-Review: Covid sleaze is back and more politically potent than ever, Five missions focused on fixing the fundamentals, says Starmer ahead of major speech, The decline and fall of the one nation Conservative. In February 2023, 47 percent of British adults would vote for the Labour Party in a . The latest Panelbase survey. The Tory lead over Labour was as high as 10% throughout April, May and June 2021. A Y It is vital that free media is allowed to exist to expose hypocrisy, corruption, wrongdoing and abuse of power. YouGov found that voting intention in 53 such constituencies in the south and east of England currently held by the party stood at 44% for the Conservatives, 24% for Labour, 18% for the Liberal Democrats and 9% for the Greens. Respondents are asked Which of these statements comes closest to your view? Two new UK-wide opinion polls have added weight to the growing belief that Labour would be close to catching the SNP if a General Election were held anytime soon. Labour has surged to its largest poll lead over the Conservatives in more than two decades, with voters turning against Kwasi Kwarteng's tax-cutting budget. In 2022, the level of people polled citing dont know has fluctuated around the 5%-8% level. The Conservatives have climbed by three percentage points to 33 per cent since the last poll. The figures show the Conservatives on 25% of the vote (+1 from our previous survey on 1-2 November) to Labour's 48% (-2). Please try different keywords. July 9, 2020 YouGov poll reveals vast majority (93%) of Brits don't wear real animal fur and do support a #FurFreeBritain; Government urged to end UK fur sales RT-Images/iStock.com Red fox lying in leaves LONDONBritish citizens overwhelmingly agree that the time has come for Britain to be fur-free. Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats have 9% of the vote (no change), while the Greens have 7% (-1) and Reform UK have 3% of the vote (no change). While polls should always be treated with caution, Labour supporters have celebrated the latest figures. The poll for the Sun found. This Conservative poll lead coincided with the unusual event of a governing party winning a seat from the Opposition, as occurred in the May 2021 Hartlepool by-election. Question asked. In this scenario, how would you vote in a General Election? should not be a referendum on Scottish Trump. Copyright 2023 YouGov PLC. The other tables reflect different ways questions around Independence can be asked, they may produce different results. Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. In all polls the dont knows are removed. By the time that the SNP under Alex Salmond had won an outright majority at Holyrood in 2011, support for Scottish independence had started to nudge back up towards 40%. If you can afford to contribute a small donation to the site it will help us to continue our work in the best interests of the public. The Yes side grew further, in the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum, in which Scotland voted to remain in the EU. However after the Scottish National Party (SNP) formed a minority government in Edinburgh, support for Scottish independence started to grow again after 2007. YouGov said that among those who voted Conservative in 2019 but now say they plan to vote Labour, Sunak's net favourability score, the percentage who have a 'favourable' opinion minus the . Under any election held on this basis, the Liberal Democrats would also be on course to gain 22 seats from the Conservatives. . In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, one in which the Scottish government took responsibility for the handling of the virus in Scotland, there were signs of sustained backing for Scottish independence for the first time. Scottish Opinion Polls Recent Scottish opinion polls. President has no right to express opinion on legality of LG polls: AKD Sri Lanka Daily Mirror 02:32 25-Feb-23. Although we'd had a YouGov earlier in February, that was for the Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) and YouGov have since clarified the questions were slightly different and thus not comparable. This means that we may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. Indeed Conservative support appeared to have grown slightly after Rishi Sunaks October 2021 budget. Britain Elects. 48 hour snow warning for Scotland as Met Office predicts an icy start to spring, Don't put your winter woollies away yet! In terms of translating these election poll findings into a projected make up of the current House of Commons, Politics.co.uk has used the Butler method to calculate the current swing between the parties compared to the 2019 General Election. Polling, even using the same question, can show systematic differences between different polling organisations and sponsors. Fewer than three in ten (29 per cent) respondents said they supported the [Gender Recognition Reform] bill, but more than half (54 per cent) said they opposed it. on public opinion. Welcome to my summary of the latest national voting intention poll from each pollster currently operating in Britain. Humza Yousaf takes the lead as SNP members swing behind Nicola Sturgeon's man, The 'worst health secretary in the history of devolution' is just ahead of his rivals in the SNP leadership contest, although a third of Nat members still don't know who to vote for, Ian Blackford 'looking forward' to end of police probe into SNP's 'murky' finances as he dodges Peter Murrell question. All Rights Reserved. With the Conservatives polling over 50%, this lead briefly surpassed 20% at the beginning of the Covid pandemic in March and April 2020. Worst-case scenario could see 120,000 Covid-19 deaths this winter scientists, Watch: Gary Neville slams PM as he rages over brutal UC cut, French border guards warn this will be what it is like after Brexit. A report released in 2017, entitled From Indyref1 to Indyref2? Scotlands political landscape after Nicola Sturgeon? Pollsters showed that Liberal Democrat voting intention during most of this Parliament has been constant at around the 9% mark with only temporary uplifts above this point. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' what number would you consider yourself to be?". It remains to be seen how support for independence will pan out now Rishi Sunak has become prime minister, King Charles III has succeeded Elizabeth II, and as Nicola Sturgeon steps down as first minister. Savanta ComRes said that the poll result "should not be treated as a headline Savanta ComRes voting intention". In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, one in which the Scottish government took responsibility for the handling of the virus in Scotland, there were signs of sustained backing for Scottish independence for the first time. Can the public identify the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party? coincided with the discussions about trans gender rights in the Scottish Parliament, and with the UK government subsequently invoking Section 35 of the Scotland Act for the first time in relation to the Gender Recognition Reform Bill. YouGov is a global public opinion and data company. All Rights Reserved. Following Margaret Thatchers departure from Downing Street, support for Scottish independence fell back slightly and was polling around 30% in the middle of the 1990s. Last updated Feb 21, 2023 View all Surveys (8) However after the Scottish National Party (SNP) formed a minority government in Edinburgh, support for Scottish independence started to grow again after 2007. had started to nudge back up towards 40%. On 23 November 2022, the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to unilaterally hold an independence referendum without the consent of the Westminster Parliament. This feed updates continuously 24/7 so check back regularly. They do not factor in the potential for further additional regional or constituency centric swings. CalMac warns of further disruption to ferry service due to lack of backup ferries, The ferry operator is facing frequent issues as it has to constantly repair the aging fleet which is blighted with problems due to the lack of back ups, Scottish lags misuse 4.1million taxpayer-funded mobile phones more than 7,000 times in three years, More than 4,082 inmates have been caught out for using mobile phones paid for by the taxpayers to commit crimes while in prison, Iconic Glasgow bakery Mortons Rolls 'ceases all trading' after 58 years. Scottish Independence Poll Methodology: The above analysis of support for Scottish independence draws from the published polls of a number of leading firms: YouGov, Survation, ComRes, Redfield and Wilton, Panelbase, Detlapoll, Opinium and IpsosMori. Given that the parliamentary results in Wales and Scotland are influenced by the existence of a fourth major party (Plaid and the SNP), Politics.co.uk has undertaken separate analysis for swings in Welsh and Scottish constituencies. YouGov: The Times: GB 2,003 23% 46%: 9% 4% 7% 8% 3%. ", 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill, COVID-19 vaccination in the United Kingdom, Opinion polling for the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2022-0098-judgment.pdf, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence&oldid=1142782908, Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK and the European Union, Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK but part of the European Union, Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has some taxation powers, Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has no taxation powers. Polling for the Welsh parliament election is less extensive than what is available in Scotland. Holy oil prepared to anoint King Charles III during coronation during ceremony in Jerusalem. On moral issues, do we really want to take the American way? A YouGov poll published this morning (2 March) makes encouraging reading for the Prime Minister. Again, the Scottish sample is even small (103 out of 993 once don't knows are removed) but the survey puts Labour in the lead north of the Border on 40 per cent of the vote. independence? The latest YouGov/Times voting intention poll, conducted following Kwasi Kwarteng's 'mini-Budget'shows the Tories have taken a severe hit following the poor reception to the Growth Plan. But we can't do it without you. An existing account was found for this email address. It's Andrew's Previews for. Only 44 per cent of those most likely to back the SNP said the same. To donate or subscribe to The London Economic, click here. And while 33 per cent said the UK Government was wrong to have blocked the bill, 50 per cent said it was right or within its rights to do so. The former SNP Westminster leader claimed he had not spoken to Nicola Sturgeon and Peter Murrell about the Police Scotland probe into the party's 'missing' 600k. However in the aftermath of fresh partygate allegations in January 2022, followed by the publication of the Gray report in February 2022, the Conservatives dropped to their lowest polling position for over a quarter of a century, falling to a point last seen during the midst of the Major government back in the 1990s. In this case, Nicola Sturgeon has said that the SNP will treat the next UK General Election as a "de facto" referendum, campaigning on the single issue of independence. /Which party are you most inclined to support? Our mission is to hold the powerful to account. Another. Poll reveals impact of Nicola Sturgeon's resignation on voting and independence. Energy & utilities. [1] Following that judgment, the SNP reiterated its intention to campaign in the next UK general election as a de facto independence referendum. Ben Walker is a senior data journalist at the New Statesman and writes extensively about elections and UK public opinion. ", Question asked: "As you may know, the UK Supreme Court has ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot hold another independence referendum without the UK Government's agreement. A YouGov poll for the Times, reported today, found that nearly 50% of voters in Scotland who plan to vote Tory are doing so primarily to prevent a pro-independence majority in Holyrood. It found that the yes vote was ahead in only one age group, amongst 25-to-39-year-olds, while in all others no. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "Do you agree that Scotland should become an independent country?" Further details of the latest voting intentions in relation to a Scottish independence referendum can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Techne (February 23) which placed the Yes side on 45.3% and the No side on 54.7%, post adjusting for undecided voters. Todays poll found that, among those who expressed a view, 76 per cent of voters believe the Scottish governments plans to change the law on gender recognition would pose a safety risk in women-only spaces, such as prisons, hospital wards and changing rooms while some 24 per cent disagreed. Opinion polling for UK general elections; 2010 election; Opinion polls: 2015 election; Opinion polls Leadership approval: 2017 election; Opinion polls Leadership approval: . Similarly, the above analysis has been conducted based on the existing United Kingdom constituency boundaries. The poll also showed a reversal on the independence question over past month, with support for secession down from 53 per cent to 47 per cent among those expressing a view the lowest since last spring. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Scottish Parliament election, held . Most Recent Independence Poll, YouGov 17th - 20th of February 2023 No Yes Don't Know Headline Excluding Don't Knows 49% (+1) 54% (+1 / -1) 42% (nc) 46% (-1 / +1) 9% (-2) By-Elections By-elections By-Election Result: Dyce, Bucksburn and Danestone February 27, 2023 Comments Off Across the whole of the UK, the YouGov poll conducted on November 1-2 predicted Labour way out ahead on 50 per cent of the vote (down one point) and the Tories marooned on 25 per cent (up one point). Click to get a sign-in link sent to your email. YouGov poll: The mental health and wellbeing of employees are not supported by legal firms Law News 15:47 3-Feb-23. YouGov: 24 Apr 2020 - 27 Apr 2020: 1,095: 25: 15: 6 : 2: 51; Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland: 01 May 2020 - 05 May 2020: 1,086: 26: 17: 5 : 2: 50; Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop: For Women Scotland, conducted by Panelbase, reported in the Times, 18 Dec 2021Data, MurrayBlackburnMackenzie, conducted by Survation, Nov 2021Report I Data. YouGov found . ", Question asked: "Would you vote SNP at the next General Election if a victory for them could lead to Scotland leaving the UK? Polling aggregator Stats for Lefties has calculated that, if this poll were repeated in a general election, the Tories would win just 17 seats behind Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems. 2019 thelondoneconomic.com - TLE, International House, 24 Holborn Viaduct, London EC1A 2BN. Early 2021. Gender Recognition Act, Tags: Gender Recognition Act, Gender Recognition Reform, Panelbase, poll, survey. In doing so the Lib Dems would defeat both the deputy prime minister, Dominic Raab, and the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt. Nicola Sturgeon Expected To Resign As Scottish First Minister Today But Why? By the second half of 2020, in November 2020, the Yes campaign reached a record level of 56% in the polls. At 64 per cent, those respondents most likely to lean towards voting Green at the next election were also most likely to say that they support the GRR bill and that the UK Governments veto was wrong. Between January 2015 and December 2022 over 230 polls have been published and recorded in the main table. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.2 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Since you are here, we wanted to ask for your help. More Scots are seeing the reality of SNP rule. "If the SNP did campaign on the next General Election as a 'de facto' second Scottish independence referendum, which of the following parties do you think you would vote for, or would you vote for another party?". We will not share your email address with any third parties. The latest YouGov/Times vote intention poll shows the Labour party on 54% of the vote, up nine points on their previous record high with YouGov on Monday. A new opinion poll has found that support for the Tories in Wales is in freefall. Britain Elects. Most of the pollsters listed were members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules.. The commissions interim findings most notably increase the number of seats in the South East of England (+7), London (+3), East Anglia (+3), and the South West (+3), at the expense of Wales (-8), the West Midlands (-3), the North East -3), the North West of England (-3), and Scotland (-2). Published by Statista Research Department , Feb 15, 2023. The previous YouGov covered the 23rd - 26th of January. YouGov poll, reported in the Telegraph on 31 Jan 2023Full results, The Times poll, conducted by YouGov, reported on 21 Jan 2023, Wings Over Scotland/The Times poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 19 Dec 2022: Why do SNP voters hate women?, The Times poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 17 Dec 2022, The Times poll, reported on 16 Oct 2022Full results. Prince Harry's popularity in the UK has decreased by 35 percentage points over the past four years, a new survey by IPSOS has found. ", Question asked was "In principle, do you think there should or The YouGov polling for The Times also suggests widespread public dissatisfaction with the government's economic plan. Nicola Sturgeon expected to resign as Scottish First Minister today But why? Forgot your password? The State of Nationalism in Scotland, detailed the previous responses from this survey by grouping options one and two as "independence", options three and four as "devolution" and option five as "No Parliament". However, there was even worse news for the SNP in the other new poll released by Redfield and Wilton Strategies on Thursday night and conducted on November 2-3. Dates. Once again the responses vary with exactly how the question is asked. Combining deep sector expertise with local knowledge to provide you with a deep understanding of your industry. In 1997, the Yes side surpassed 40% in the polls for the first time. Prior to the collapse in Conservative polling in 2022, it was suggested that equalising constituencies may assist the Conservatives by as many as 10 seats, given that the partys seats in the south of England are currently numerically larger than those found elsewhere in the country. In the aftermath of the 2019 General Election, the Conservative party enjoyed a healthy lead in the opinion polls. The current voting intention trend can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Techme (10 February) which placed Labour on 47%, the Conservatives on 26%, and the Liberal Democrts on 9%. YOUGOV has recorded a boost in Scottish independence support, with backing for Yes up four points in its latest polling. Sign up for a FREE NewsNow account and get our email alert of the day's top stories from the UK and around the world. In early November 2021, the furore over the resignation of the Conservative MP Owen Patterson saw the trend Conservative vote share fall by a further 3%. This drop off appears to dovetail with a growth in support in the opinion polls for the Scottish labour party under Anas Sarwar. This is the same constant level of dont knows that has been seen in most polls over the last 5 years. Sorry, no headlines or news topics were found. Support for Scottish independence nudged up to 50% for the first time in 2019, soon after Boris Johnson became prime minister. Most polling companies listed here are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Voting Intention, tracking changes over time. This once again reaffirms how sleaze and scandal remain the most potent political weapons in British politics, ones which can quickly and easily cut through to voters. As always you can unsubscribe at any time. State of the Nation. The main table includes primarily those polls which ask the same question as the 2014 referendum: "Should Scotland be an Independent Country?". The Boundary Commission is currently in the midst of a review designed to better equalise constituency sizes. Scottish election 2021: Polling expert says SNP majority 'on a knife-edge' Small movements in the polls between now and May 6 could make an "important difference to the outcome", according to . Business & professional services. The latest YouGov poll, of 1,088 voters in Scotland from January 23 to January 26, found that Sturgeons approval rating had slipped into negative territory, from +7 to -4, since October. Britain Elects deals in poll aggregation alongside analysis of upcoming elections and the state of British public opinion. Automotive. The Aberdeen youth product is training with the under-21s after falling out-of-favour on Tyneside. Big names to go would include Joanna Cherry and Mhairi Black. Majority of people support NEU teacher strikes, YouGov poll finds Dorset Live 14:59 6-Feb-23. excludes 16 and 17 year-olds and did not ascertain likelihood to vote. The latest YouGov/Times voting intention poll, conducted a fortnight after Rishi Sunak became prime minister, shows Labour maintaining a significant lead over the Conservatives. We haven't published any articles, trackers or survey results about Voting Intention. That's according to a new YouGov poll commissioned by WalesOnline to mark St David's Day 2023. . On moral issues, do we really want to take the American way? YouGov Westminster voting intention If there were a general election held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Should religious people be allowed to hold top political jobs? In the 2016 independence referendum, some 44.7% of Scottish voters backed Scotland becoming an independent country. (Excluding Dont Knows the margin is just shy of 70/30, very similar to the margin by which people in polls oppose self-ID generally. The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum to the present day. Indeed by the time that the Scot, Gordon Brown, became prime minister in 2007, support for Scottish independence had fallen back to 24%, its lowest level for over two decades. We don't have an account for this email address. Rather than experience a new prime ministerial bounce, in September 2022, the picture was not positive for Liz Truss. In the space of a month, support for the SNP in the next Scottish parliament election had fallen from 50 per cent to 44 per cent in the constituency vote . Should a general election be held today, this would likely lead to the following composition of the House of Commons: The result of a general election is projected as a Labour victory with the party securing an outright majority of 46 seats. "Yes to an independent Scotland", "No to an independent Scotland", "I will not vote" and "I am not registered to vote" were the options given. ((__lxGc__=window.__lxGc__||{'s':{},'b':0})['s']['_222513']=__lxGc__['s']['_222513']||{'b':{}})['b']['_680898']={'i':__lxGc__.b++}; Never miss the day's key interactions and exchanges in parliament. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Yes at 46 per cent when Nicola Sturgeon quit with Labour support rising, poll finds.

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